Wall St & Crypto Emerging From Trump Tariff Damage
The U.S equity market, Bitcoin and numerous tokens lost much of the gains accumulated during previous couple of months. The S&P 500 broad barometer plummeted from its well above 6,750 points achievements to 6,510 as a weekly closing level, losing 3.33% within one regular session. The crypto environment lost a reported $8.5 billion in less than one hour due to massive liquidation of bullish bets while BTCUSD was sliding from $122,000+ to the bottom of near $105,000, only to bounce back more than halfway to the $115,000 area over the weekend. All those tech behemoths with trillions of market caps in their pockets fared much better as well, with chip designer Nvidia and hyping EV-maker Tesla adding more than 3%, Google search generator of ad income, cloud data and e-commerce platform Amazon, social media giant Meta with its stable ad revenues rising all up about 1.8% already in the first trading hour of US Monday morning, October 13. Broadcom (AVGO) shares are doing exceptionally well, soaring by nearly 10% after today's strategic collaboration pact with OpenAI for deploying 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators to signify "a pivotal moment in the pursuit of artificial general intelligence," said Hock Tan, CEO of Broadcom. There are big businesses that don't care about this trade fray at all, like Netflix, which barely suffered on Friday, and they even had their ratings boosted by some investment houses.
Investors appear to have been knocked down but are quickly recovering from the blow of U.S.-China aggressive trading rhetoric. So, what exactly happened? Beijing is introducing export controls with a permitting procedure for rare earth metals. Chinese authorities added some "special" port service charges for American ships. However, Beijing has already commented that the country's export controls "are not export bans", so that "any export applications for civilian use that comply with regulations will be approved, and relevant enterprises need not worry", according to China’s commerce ministry. Could this affect military production for Pentagon orders, such as the latest F35 jets? Probably yes, just as it could also serve as a negotiating tool for U.S.-China's competitive measures in the cutting-edge AI chip segment, but the blackmail strategy in the latter case is a two-way street. Thus, Donald Trump's announcement on Friday of 100% tariffs on all Beijing goods starting November 1 also looks like a simple muscle-flexing exercise ahead of his scheduled meeting with Xi Jinping before that deadline date.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent already confirmed in his interview with Fox Business Networkthat Donald Trump was "on track" to meet with China's supreme leader in South Korea as the two sides "have substantially de-escalated". Scott Bessent added that sharp countermeasures from Trump last Friday would not go into effect until November 1, with the meeting still being "on". There will also be "lots of staff-level meetings" this week on the sidelines of the World Bank and IMF (International Monetary Fund) annual meetings in Washington, he said. Trump himself and his vice-president JD Vance already opened the door to the upcoming China deal. Trump hinted at a possible off-ramp for Beijing to reassure spooked markets by writing on Truth Social: “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!” JD Vance called on Beijing to “choose the path of reason”, claiming that Trump has more advantage if the fight drags on.
In short, our major conclusion is that just like the things developed after Trump's "Liberation Day" in early April, with his massive and double digit tariff package for almost each and every country, here we deal again with simply preparatory verbal shelling that won't necessarily lead to actual combat and tall trade barriers. Most fundamentally strong market assets not only survived but also grew to become even much stronger, rapidly rising during last six months, and they'll continue to do so on another act of dip buying. This week and the next one could be used by many investors for accumulating their money resources to purchase even more tech stocks, especially AI-related ones, and more crypto assets for their investment portfolios and just for the sake of short-term speculative activity on cheaper giants. We estimate that this re-buying process could begin even right now or within a few days.
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